Analysis Axos Financial Inc (AX)

5/25/2024

Analysis of Axos Financial Inc (AX)

Axos Financial Inc (AX) has shown some interesting price movements recently. The stock closed at $53.18, with a high of $55.80 and a low of $53.16. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 35.82, indicating the stock is approaching oversold levels.

Looking at the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicators, the MACD line is at 1.03514, below the signal line of 1.95459, with a negative MACD histogram of -0.91945. This suggests a bearish momentum in the stock.

In terms of moving averages, the Simple Moving Average (SMA) is at 57.64440, the Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is at 57.02045, and the Weighted Moving Average (WMA) is at 58.29703.

Overall, based on the indicators and moving averages, Axos Financial Inc seems to be in a bearish phase, with the stock potentially being oversold. Traders and investors may want to monitor the stock closely for any potential reversal or further downside.

Earnings

The company's results for the most recent quarter, ending on April 30, 2025, have not been provided at this time. The previous quarter's results, ending on February 27, 2025, were handled by the Transfer Agent. The results for January 31, 2025, were released after hours. The results for October 31, 2024, were not provided at the time. The results for August 1, 2024, showed an earnings per share (EPS) estimate of 1.33.

Main Statystic 🧠

The data provides a comprehensive overview of the financial and stock-related metrics for a specific company. Here are the key points:

1. **Financials**:
- **Cash Flow**: Operating cash flow (TTM) is $110.56 billion, and levered free cash flow (TTM) is $84.73 billion.
- **Balance Sheet**: Total cash (MRQ) is $67.15 billion, total debt (MRQ) is $104.59 billion, current ratio (MRQ) is 1.037, book value per share (MRQ) is $4.837, total cash per share (MRQ) is $4.379, and total debt to equity ratio (MRQ) is 140.968.
- **Profit Margin**: The profit margin is 26.31%.
- **Income Statement**: EBITDA is $131.39 billion, revenue (TTM) is $381.62 billion, diluted EPS (TTM) is $6.44, gross profit (TTM) is $169.15 billion, revenue per share (TTM) is $24.537, net income to common (TTM) is $100.39 billion, quarterly revenue growth is -4.3%, and quarterly earnings growth YoY is -2.2%.
- **Margins**: Operating margin is 30.74%.
- **Returns**: Return on assets (TTM) is 22.07%, and return on equity (TTM) is 147.25%.

2. **Stock Statistics**:
- **Shares**: Float shares are 15.31 billion, shares short are 94.31 million, shares outstanding are 15.33 billion.
- **Short Interest**: Short ratio is 1.66, short percent of shares outstanding is 0.62%.
- **Volume**: Average 10-day volume is 52.90 million, average 90-day volume is 62.82 million.
- **Ownership**: Percent held by insiders is 5.22%, percent held by institutions is 57.55%.

3. **Valuation Metrics**:
- **Ratios**: PEG ratio is 26.21, forward PE is 26.21, trailing PE is 29.43, price to book (MRQ) is 39.18, price to sales (TTM) is 7.62, enterprise to EBITDA is 22.75, enterprise to revenue is 7.73.
- **Market Cap**: Enterprise value is $2.95 trillion, market capitalization is $2.91 trillion.

4. **Stock Price Summary**:
- **Performance**: Beta is 1.264, 50-day moving average is $173.69, 200-day moving average is $180.79, 52-week low is $164.08, 52-week high is $199.62, 52-week change is 8.25%.

5. **Dividends and Splits**:
- **Dividends**: Payout ratio is 14.93%, dividend date is May 16, 2024, ex-dividend date is May 10, 2024, forward annual dividend rate is $1, 5-year average dividend yield is 0.73%, forward annual dividend yield is 0.53%, trailing annual dividend rate is $0.97, trailing annual dividend yield is 0.51%, last split date is August 31, 2020 (4-for-1 split).

Income statement 💸

These are the revenue figures. Here are the conclusions:

1. The company's sales revenue has been increasing steadily over the years, from $274.5 billion in 2020 to $383.3 billion in 2023.
2. Despite the increase in sales, the cost of goods sold has also been rising, indicating a potential challenge in managing production or procurement costs.
3. The gross profit margin seems to be relatively stable, with gross profit ranging between $105 billion and $169 billion.
4. Operating income has shown an upward trend, reaching $114.3 billion in 2023 from $66.3 billion in 2020.
5. Net income has also been increasing over the years, from $57.4 billion in 2020 to $97 billion in 2023, indicating improved profitability.
6. Earnings per share (EPS) have shown a slight fluctuation but have generally increased from $3.28 in 2020 to $6.16 in 2023.
7. The company has been able to maintain a consistent number of outstanding shares, which is important for investors to assess the dilution of their ownership.
8. Overall, the financial performance of the company in terms of revenue and profitability has been positive and improving over the years.

Balance Sheet

These are balance sheets. Here are the conclusions:

1. The total assets have been increasing over the years, reaching $365,725,000,000 in 2018.
2. Current assets fluctuate, with the highest value in 2019 at $162,819,000,000.
3. Non-current assets have been increasing steadily, with the highest value in 2019 at $175,697,000,000.
4. Total liabilities have also been increasing, reaching $255,355,000,000 in 2018.
5. Shareholders' equity has been fluctuating, with the highest value in 2018 at $107,147,000,000.

Cash Flow 💶

This is a cash flow statement. Here are some conclusions we can draw from the data:

1. The company's free cash flow has been fluctuating over the years, with the highest value in 2022 and the lowest in 2020.
2. The operating cash flow has been increasing steadily over the years, indicating improved operational efficiency.
3. The company has been consistently paying interest and income taxes, with varying amounts each year.
4. The end cash position has also been fluctuating, reaching its peak in 2020.
5. Financing activities show a pattern of common stock repurchase, long-term debt issuance, and payment, with significant variations in amounts each year.
6. Investing activities reflect acquisitions, sale and purchase of investments, and capital expenditures, with significant changes in values annually.
7. Overall, the company's financial activities show a mix of stability and variability, indicating a dynamic financial performance.

Earnings estimate

The analysts' estimates for future quarterly and annual earnings per share are as follows:

1. Current Quarter (as of June 30, 2024):
- Average Estimate: $1.33
- Low Estimate: $1.27
- High Estimate: $1.36
- Year Ago EPS: $1.26
- Number of Analysts: 26

2. Next Quarter (as of September 30, 2024):
- Average Estimate: $1.53
- Low Estimate: $1.44
- High Estimate: $1.63
- Year Ago EPS: $1.46
- Number of Analysts: 25

3. Current Year (as of September 30, 2024):
- Average Estimate: $6.59
- Low Estimate: $6.43
- High Estimate: $6.92
- Year Ago EPS: $6.13
- Number of Analysts: 39

4. Next Year (as of September 30, 2025):
- Average Estimate: $7.23
- Low Estimate: $6.40
- High Estimate: $7.90
- Year Ago EPS: $6.59
- Number of Analysts: 39

Based on these estimates, we can see a generally positive trend in the expected earnings per share for both the upcoming quarters and the next fiscal year. The average estimates are showing an increase compared to the year-ago EPS figures, indicating potential growth in earnings for the company.

Revenue estimate

Based on analysts' estimates for the future quarterly and annual sales of the company, we can draw the following conclusions:

1. For the current quarter ending on June 30, 2024, the average sales estimate is $83,776,900,000, with a sales growth of 2% compared to the same quarter last year. The number of analysts providing estimates is 24.

2. For the next quarter ending on September 30, 2024, the average sales estimate is $92,375,300,000, with a sales growth of 3% compared to the same quarter last year. The number of analysts providing estimates is 24.

3. For the current fiscal year ending on September 30, 2024, the average sales estimate is $386,681,000,000, with a sales growth of 1% compared to the previous fiscal year. The number of analysts providing estimates is 37.

4. For the next fiscal year ending on September 30, 2025, the average sales estimate is $411,555,000,000, with a sales growth of 6% compared to the current fiscal year. The number of analysts providing estimates is 37.

These estimates suggest a moderate growth trend in both quarterly and annual sales for the company, with slightly higher growth expected in the next fiscal year compared to the current one.

Growth estimates

Based on the consensus estimates provided:
- The company is expected to have a growth rate of 7.5% in the current year.
- For the next quarter, the growth rate is estimated to be 4.8%.
- In the current quarter, the growth rate is estimated to be 5.6%.
- The company is expected to have an annual growth rate of 9.7% next year.
- Over the next 5 years, the company is expected to have a compound annual growth rate of 11%.
- Over the past 5 years, the company had a compound annual growth rate of 20.15%.

These estimates suggest that the company has been experiencing strong growth in the past but is expected to see slightly lower growth rates in the near future, with a significant increase in growth projected over the next 5 years.

Price target

The analysts' forecast for the future price of the security is as follows:
- Low: $164
- High: $250
- Median: $200
- Average: $202.26
- Current price: $191.57
- Currency: USD

Based on these forecasts, we can see that the analysts have a wide range of opinions on the future price of the security, with the low end at $164, the high end at $250, and the average at $202.26. The current price of the security is $191.57, which is below the median and average forecasted prices.